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San Luis Rio Colorado and Sonora News

AMLO Leads the 2006 Pack; the "Dark Horse" Makes some Strides

In another confirmation of his frontrunner status, former Mexico City Mayor Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador leads the presidential preferences for likely voters in San Luis Rio Colorado, Sonora, according to a recent poll by the city's La Cronica newspaper. In a sampling of 138 people conducted in the border city from July 30 to August 4, Lopez Obrador was chosen as the preferred candidate in 2006 by 39.8 percent of the respondents.

The virtual nominee of the center-left Party of the Democratic Revolution (PRD) was trailed by the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) with 31.6 percent of voter preferences and the center-right National Action Party (PAN) with 26.1 percent. Interestingly, the same poll revealed a possibility that voters will split their ballots, with a majority of respondents indicating they would cast their support for the PAN in the race for municipal president. The poll had a margin of error of about 7 percent.

Registered voters also were asked their preferences for 6 possible PRI presidential candidates. However, as of this week, only two pre-candidates remain: Roberto Madrazo and Arturo Montiel of the Tucom faction. Conducted before Montiel emerged as the Tucom candidate, the poll showed Madrazo with 10.8 percent of the preferences and Montiel with 6.5 percent. The PRI will conduct its primary election in early November to choose the party's 2006 candidate, but Madrazo is widely expected to win the nomination.

President Vicente Fox's PAN will also conduct an electoral process in the fall to select its presidential nominee for next year's election. Former Interior Minister Santiago Creel is regarded as the leading contender for the PAN's nomination, but he faces competition from Felipe Calderon and Alberto Cardenas.

A former governor of Jalisco state and the recently-resigned chief of the Ministry of the Environment and Natural Resources (Semarnat), Cardenas has picked up the support of prominent women party militants in Sonora. Backing the PAN's so-called "Dark Horse" are Elsa Velasco Chico, the wife of PAN Deputy Carlos Tapia Astiaazaran; and Teresa Aguirre, the wife of Gustavo de Unanue Galla, a Ministry of Social Development official and Felipe Calderon supporter. Cardenas also has found a valuable ally in Yashodara Romero, the wife of Sonora state Semarnat Delegate Florencio Diaz Armenta. Romero coordinates Cardenas' campaign among women in five northern states.

Sources:
La Cronica, August 8, 2005. Articles by Santiago Barroso Alfaro and Luis Alberto Medina.
Norte/Notimex, August 6, 2005. Frontera NorteSur (FNS): on-line, U.S.-Mexico border news
Center for Latin American and Border Studies
New Mexico State University
Las Cruces, New Mexico

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